Only five games remain in the 2024 NRL season. It’s do-or-die from here, so I’ve picked out a few of the deciding factors for the weekend ahead.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys
Many hands make light work
The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks seemed to strike a nice balance in their attack while Nicho Hynes sat on the sideline.
It came with the defence’s uncertainty about where the ball would go. Nicho Hynes touches the ball 60 times per game as one of the most high-usage players in the NRL. He’s a consistenty indicator of where the Sharks will attack from.
However, with Daniel Atkinson and Braydon Trindall splitting touches, the Sharks played both sides of the field and found themselves in positions to take what the defence gave them.
Outside of the 74 times Atkinson touched the ball against the Knights without a recognised half beside him, he didn’t touch the ball more than 50 times in the games without Hynes. Meanwhile, Trindall averaged 44 touches alongside Atkinson.
The eye test said the Sharks looked better balanced, and it shows in some of the numbers.
Hynes has transitioned well into the halfback position, but I prefer to see him on the second layer running downhill at a defence. The NRL has become obsessed with the player wearing the #7 jersey being an organiser or traditional half, but Jahrome Huges has proven that you can be run-first at the position and still dominate.
Hynes spoke about the need to “nail my opportunities” in an interview throughout the week. Nailing them rather than trying to create more is a positive approach.
Jack Cogger isn’t in the same world as Hynes as a halfback, but to provide an example, I highlighted how he impacted the Knights’ attack without touching the ball on Monday.
Hynes doesn’t need to be on the ball to direct his team around the field.
Less might be more with Hynes if he can pick and choose his spots more often over trying to create opportunities for others on the following play.
Net positive left & right
Heilum Luki and Jeremiah Nanai are two of the most exciting edge backrowers in the NRL.
Luki runs hard lines and looks to tear the inside shoulder of the opposition defence. He pushes through contact and through tackles with his 195cm and 103kg frame. The 23-year-old has broken 12 tackles in his last two matches. However, he also has an error in him – five in his last four games.
If he can catch in contact and play a clean game, Luki will finish as a net positive for the Cowboys. His line running will test the defence, and his work inside the opposition half will benefit his edge. The key is that those positive moments outweigh the negative.
Meanwhile, there isn’t a backrower better in the air than Nanai. No matter how a good ball set plays out for the Cowboys, they have the option to hang one up for Nanai on the last, which is a high-percentage finish to any set.
The but with Nanai comes in defence.
He will be a target for the Sharks.
He works hard up and out from the inside but can get caught looking to make his move a little bit early. The Storm found him out early a couple of weeks ago.
We know Nanai will produce something with the ball that leads to points. But his work in defence will go a long way toward determining North Queensland’s fate.
Sydney Roosters v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Roosters rushing the middle
James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Joseph Sua’ali’i, Joey Manu, Dom Young.
Although the Sydney Roosters have been hit hard by major injuries recently, their back-five is still one of the best in the NRL.
There are plenty of points in this Roosters team on the edges if they can get the ball there.
Trent Robinson might employ a no-frills approach to this game. They have the forwards to run hard and straight. Where other teams might rely on ball playing to pass bodies into spots, Lindsay Collins, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Spencer Leniu and Terrell May all do their best work tucking the ball under their arm and charging forward.
No Roosters forward threw more than three passes last week. Collins, Angus Crichton and Nat Butcher didn’t throw any. If we go back to Round 25, before so much changed for this team, both Butcher and Sitili Tupouniua threw six each, while May, Crichton and Waerea-Hargreaves all moved the ball on twice each.
Naufahu Whyte and Tupouniua show no signs of looking to pass the ball here against the Panthers in Week 1.
But it allowed the Roosters to get to their spots and organise the attack to engage certain defenders. In this case, it’s Sandon Smith getting at the defender five-in while Luke Keary makes a line for Nathan Cleary with a Crighton lead outside him.
The key for the Roosters making the most of what is still a stacked backline by getting to their points. They’ll do that by winning the yardage battle, playing on the front foot, and dictating field position.
Sea Eagles stepping up in yardage
The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs profile is perfect for capitalising on any back five that isn’t dominant in yardage. They use Matt Burton’s boot to get the ball deep in opposition territory. From there, they front-load their defence by working hard from marker and pushing ball carriers into a thick defensive line.
There is only so much you can do as a back five against the Bulldogs defence, particularly when you’re an 82kg winger like Lehi Hopoate.
The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles back five made up only 581 running metres in Week 1.
Hopoate and Tommy Talau combined for only 150 metres on 28 carries for just 5.4 metres per carry. Reuben Garrick isn’t the biggest metre-eater at centre and fell 10 metres short of his 124-metre season average while 50 of Tolutau Koula’s 131 metres came on the game-winning try.
Expect the Sydney Roosters to take an approach similar to the Bulldogs. They’ve been given the blueprint to contain the Sea Eagles in yardage. In response, I expect Manly to move the ball more often.
That isn’t to say they mindlessly shift the ball, but they play out sets similar to this one more often.
It starts with Hopoate returning the kick ahead of a Reuben Garrick carry. Note that he makes a line for the much smaller Reed Mahoney in the line.
Talau then puts his hand up for a yardage carry. I’d imagine he had one eye on Toby Sexton in the line, but the halfback gets up high in front of his line and forces Talau back into the big bodies.
The Sea Eagles look ready to move the ball, but some dodgy service from dummy half and space in behind the ruck allows Nathan Brown to play the ball inside to Josh Aloai, who again picks out Mahoney.
That’s the momentum carry the Sea Eagles want to move the ball.
It ends up being a teaching moment for Hopoate. While Trbojevic could have taken the tackle himself, Hopoate has to take the inside shoulder here and do his best without getting pushed into touch.
Still, it’s an indication of how the Sea Eagles can approach their yardage sets without so much reliance on a relatively small back five taking tough carries. If the Sea Eagles can get up the field, the Roosters will struggle to keep them from scoring.